South Africa‘s 2-0 series victory over Sri Lanka at home has narrowed what was once a five-team race to a more focused three-way battle for a spot in the Lord’s finale next June. New Zealand’s chances evaporated after two home defeats to England, following their 3-0 series win over India.
Meanwhile, Australia and India now face off in what appears to be a knockout clash, with the winner set to challenge the strong favourites, South Africa. Here’s the current situation for the three teams still in contention.
South Africa
South Africa has surged to the top of the WTC table with five straight wins, after a slow start. A win against Pakistan would secure their place at Lord’s, while two wins could see them finish first.
However, losing both Tests to Pakistan could see them overtaken by India, Australia, or even Sri Lanka, depending on other results. With fewer matches played, their percentage is more sensitive to wins and losses compared to other teams.
Australia
Australia briefly topped the table after their big win in Adelaide but dropped after South Africa’s victory in Gqeberha. Two wins from their remaining three Tests against India should secure their position.
If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends 2-2, Australia will need at least one win in Sri Lanka to stay ahead of India. If they lose 2-3 to India, they must win both Tests in Sri Lanka to progress without relying on South Africa.
India
India’s hopes of reaching a third consecutive WTC final are at risk after four losses in their last five Tests. To avoid relying on other results, they must win two and draw one of their remaining three Tests in Australia. If they win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2-1, Australia could still finish ahead by beating Sri Lanka 2-0.
If the series ends 2-2 and both Tests between Australia and Sri Lanka are draws, India will progress due to more series wins. A 1-2/1-3/1-4 loss ends their hopes, while a 3-2 defeat could still take them through with certain other results.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s chances were significantly affected by their series loss to South Africa, but they can still finish in the top two if the following happens:
– Sri Lanka beats Australia 2-0, finishing with 53.85%, and
– South Africa loses both Tests to Pakistan, finishing at 52.78%. In this case, either Australia or India would need to fall short of Sri Lanka’s 53.85%.
Alternatively, if South Africa earns at least one draw against Pakistan, finishing above 55%, and India wins the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2-1, both Australia (53.51%) and India (51.75%) would finish below Sri Lanka’s 53.85%.
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