Can India Qualify For WTC Final Even After Losing MCG Test?

The probability of India emerging victorious in the MCG Boxing Day Test is slimming down rapidly. Targeting a mammoth total of 340, they have found three vital scalps in the initial session of the final day. Australian fast bowlers Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins have been relentless, India struggling at 33/3 before lunch.

India lost Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul, and Virat Kohli, indicating that it may not pull off a repeat of the stunning run chase seen at the Gabba last year. The Indian batsmen will be in a fix to save a draw, let alone a win, because the pressure is now on the increase.

It is important as India’s place in the WTC final is at stake. If they were to be defeated here, it would be a massive loss and would make the path to the final even more difficult. Currently, India relies on the possibility of a miracle to switch sides of this match.

How can India qualify for the WTC Final even if they lose the MCG Test?

The thrilling victory in the first Test match, where South Africa won by two wickets against Pakistan, has taken the team to the 2025 World Test Championship Finals. This gives only one position that will definitely be fought for by the rest of the teams as the competition becomes stiff.

India is on the precipice now, as their WTC final dreams are fading fast. Their points balls won (PCT) will decrease to 52.78 in the event the side lost the MCG Test, while that of Australia will increase to 61.45. If India has to continue being in the fray, it must win the last BGT being played at SCG, which would take the PCT of the Indian team to 55.26.

If Australia loses the Sydney Test, their PCT would be about 57.84, which means that India has a real chance of overtaking the Aussies and qualifying for the WTC final.

However, this would mean that Sri Lanka would have to win not less than one game and draw the second Test against Australia down to their PCT of 53.50. Although it is not impossible for India to get ousted from the WTC final, a loss in Melbourne will certainly make it very hard for India to continue the fight.