India’s humiliating 10-wicket defeat to Australia in the second Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Adelaide has dealt a severe blow to their World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final hopes. The loss, completed in just over two days, raised concerns about India’s current form and pushed their points percentage from 61.11 to 57.29, dropping them to third place behind Australia and South Africa.
With only three Tests left in this WTC cycle, India faces a monumental challenge to secure their third consecutive WTC final appearance. Their recent performance has been alarming, with six losses in this cycle, four of which occurred in the past few months.
Scenarios for Qualification
India’s chances of qualification hinge on their performance in the remaining three Tests of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. To keep their hopes alive, they must avoid further defeats. Winning two matches and drawing one would boost their points percentage to 60.52, securing a spot in the final without reliance on other results. A clean sweep of the remaining games would further raise their percentage to an impressive 64.05, making their qualification inevitable.
However, a 2-2 draw with Australia would leave India with a percentage of 57.01, allowing Australia to edge past with 130 points, effectively ending India’s WTC hopes. If India wins the series 3-2, they would finish with 58.77%, keeping their chances alive but still dependent on other outcomes.
South Africa in a Strong Position
While India’s path to the WTC final remains precarious, South Africa is well-positioned to make their first-ever appearance in the summit clash. With three home matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, South Africa could achieve a points percentage of 69.44 by winning all their games, cementing their spot in the final.
For India to have any hope, they must win the ongoing series 3-1, which would push their percentage to 60.52, leaving Australia at a maximum of 57% even if they secure two victories in their upcoming series against Sri Lanka. This scenario would ensure an India-South Africa WTC final.
India’s qualification now depends on delivering consistent performances in the remaining matches while hoping their rivals falter in crucial fixtures. The stakes are higher than ever for Rohit Sharma’s men.
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