The race for the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final is heating up, with teams vying for the top two spots. As the games intensify, Australia, India, and South Africa lead the standings, but other teams remain in contention with slim chances. Let’s break down the qualification scenarios for all nine teams.
India and Australia: Strong Contenders
India, ranked third, revived their chances after a crucial win against Australia at Perth. However, they must win at least two of the three remaining Tests in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and aim for a draw in one to secure a spot. This would require consistent performances against Australia, with their qualification probability standing at 30%.
Australia, the current table-toppers and WTC champions, have the most favorable path. With five Tests remaining—three against India at home and two away against Sri Lanka—winning at least three matches will ensure their qualification. Their strong position puts their chances at 65%, making them a frontrunner for the final.
South Africa and Sri Lanka: Pursuing the Top Two
South Africa, currently in second place, started strong and remain well-poised to qualify. Having won five of their nine matches, they need to win just one of their two remaining home Tests against Pakistan to solidify their place in the final. Their qualification probability stands at a high 90%, making them the team to beat.
Sri Lanka, on the other hand, has an uphill battle. Despite winning five out of ten games, their losses against England and South Africa have narrowed their path. To qualify, they must win all three remaining Tests, including two against Australia. Their chances remain slim at 20%, and they will need favorable results from other teams.
Other Teams: Out of Contention
New Zealand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and West Indies have been mathematically ruled out of contention. New Zealand, with one match remaining, faltered after successive losses to England. Pakistan’s inconsistent performance, particularly in away series, and Bangladesh’s early defeats eliminated their chances. Similarly, West Indies, with only two wins in 11 games, sit at the bottom of the table and are out of the race.
Despite the competitive nature of the tournament, the road to the WTC final has become clearer for Australia, India, and South Africa, while other teams now focus on rebuilding for the next cycle.
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