The 13th edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL) gets more exciting as we enter the business end of the competition. Barring three-time champions Chennai Super Kings; every team is the running for a playoff spot.
Currently, in IPL 2020, three teams – Royal Challengers Bangalore, Mumbai Indians, and Delhi Capitals are tied in 14 points. However, the defending champions occupy the first spot via net run-rate. Kings XI Punjab and the Kolkata Knight Riders occupy the fourth and fifth spot respectively with 12 points each.
With IPL 2020 entering the final stages of the group leg, let us take a look into the playoffs scenarios:
1. The maximum any team can reach is 20 points
2. Only three teams can reach this figure – Mumbai Indians, Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bangalore
3. If one of these three teams gets to 20 points, the other two can’t.
4. Barring these three teams, no other team can cross 16 points and only Kolkata Knight Riders and Kings XI Punjab can manage even that.
5. With 10 games left, there are 1,024 possible combinations of match outcomes (not counting washouts).
6. Chennai is the only team who is out of contention for the playoff.
7. Rajasthan Royals need to win both their remaining games to have a chance of qualifying. But even if they do, they have only a 3% chance of being tied on points for fourth place (32 out of 1,024 possible outcomes).
8. Sunrisers Hyderabad’s chances of qualifying also remain slim. They need to win their remaining three games. Even if they do that, they have only a 7% chance of being tied for fourth place.
9. Mumbai Indians, Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bangalore have a 95% chance of qualifying.
10. The chances of any of these teams failing to qualify because they can’t even make joint fourth spot is a mere 0.8%. The probability of any of them ending up in tied fourth spot is 4.7%
11. Kolkata Knight Riders and Kings XI are therefore the most likely contenders for the fourth spot
12. Neither KKR nor Kings XI can be a clear No.1, but there is a tiny chance (0.8%) of either of these teams making it to the joint first spot.